These are propaganda utterances and actions intended for the two to stand out of the crowd. They aim to continue being reported as the only horses.
Along which other candidates must realign with. Raila thinks he can re-create the Pentagon-type Azimio La Umoja Movement (ALUM). With fresh regional kingpins.
He markets ALUM as a Coalition of partners, not followers. It’s an upright vessel to carry like-minded parties.
Raila is bereaved of new tricks to to whip euphoric waves of the NARC and Pentagon types. His new regional kingpins are spineless.
That’s why his pawns failed to dislodge Wetangula from FORD-K. And sought refuge in DAP-K of Eugene Wamalwa.
Unlike the two horses, succeeding Uhuru isn’t a matter of life and death for Mudavadi. It’s the zeal of the two horses in propaganda.
To succeed Uhuru that makes the media to allocate them five times airtime coverage for each more than the OKA principals.
They enjoy the trappings of power and use public resources in their early succession campaigns.
On the other hand, Mudavadi has stayed away from the trappings of power and use of public resources for a very long time.
He’s only persuading Kenyans to give him a chance to fix this ailing country. He says he’s safe pair of hands and experience to revive and grow the economy.
The oft statement from Raila and Ruto allies that Mudavadi must join either of the two horses if he wants to be in government is misplaced and intimidation at worst.
Mudavadi isn’t dying to be in government. He’s said it. He’s been in government. He’s resisted offers to join Cabinet after voters by-passed him at the ballot.
The next government
He wants voters to re-think and allow him to form the next government to prove he’s the CHANGE they need.
Raila says senior Mudavadi assisted his father Jaramogi. We also know he assisted the late President Moi to join elective politics.
Moi returned the favor by appointing senior Mudavadi and replaced him with his son (Musalia) when he passed on.
Chief campaign manager in 2017
Raila finds it difficult to merely return the favor by supporting Mudavadi in the Uhuru succession race.
He’s had no luck for the seat four times. In any case, Mudavadi supported him as Chief Campaign Manager in 2017. On condition he won’t contest again regardless of the results.
He resorted to maneuvers to free himself from the NASA agreement, starting with unilateral withdrawal from the October 26, 2017 re-run.
Fake swearing in ceremony
Then, followed the fake swearing-in ceremony calculated to label his NASA partners as cowards.
It culminated in the historic handshake with his nemesis. That transformed him into a government apologist at the suffering of the masses.
In the face of unbearable high cost of living. The death of the BBI project (crafted as Raila’s new vehicle to revive his State House bid) didn’t dim his dreams to succeed Uhuru.
Azimio La Umoja
He emerged with Azimio La Umoja (ALU) mantra and organized regional processions disguised as unity meetings.
Yet, it’s a preparatory process to declare his fifth stab at the presidency. The ultimate ALU convention to ratify MKF’s endorsement was an underwhelming event.
The OKA quartet realized it would be political suicide to honor individual invitations to attend.
Jubilee Party National Delegates Congress
They rightly gave the event a wide berth. Earlier, the President postponed the JP NDC convention intended.
To ratify JP-ODM Coalition to endorse Raila in the ALU convention as the joint presidential candidate.
He’s conveniently absent from the ALU convention.
- The DP is one of the tribal kingpins, who relies on ring-fencing regions for success. Voters can’t trust him to lead the hustlers.
- President Uhuru’s trust inadvertently handed his political bastion to his impatient deputy at great cost to the country
Endorsements aren’t delegated. Those in attendance like CSs were there in their personal capacities.
They reason that they attended a unity meeting, not endorsement of a presidential candidate. Matiang’i is on record, that they turn right or left depending on Uhuru’s commands.
Speaker Muturi said Uhuru confided in him that both Handshake partners were to unite the country and retire together.
A smell of mistrust. The Meru Governor didn’t attend the convention and later announced only the rank and file of the Devolution Empowerment Party (BUS) will give direction on who to support.
The long-awaited Limuru III hasn’t convened for the Mountain to decide on which candidate to support.
Raila’s ALUM did not happen prematurely. Though all these ALUM converts can change tune if the President realizes OKA is the only vessel carrying a better successor he has worked with before.
Ruto is unqualified to woo Mudavadi for support
On the other hand, Ruto is unqualified to woo Mudavadi for support. He jumped into the two-horse race narrative by virtue of his abrasive politics.
Mudavadi is past playing second fiddle to Ruto in any government. The Kalenjin tasted the sweetness of political power through the late Moi’s presidency.
That’s why the community rallies behind Ruto as the most placed candidate to return the presidency to the Valley.
The Luhyas have never tasted it
They form the support base that makes Ruto strong. The Luhyas have never tasted it, reducing then to confused voting machines of populists.
Who demean their sons in their own backyard as they clap. They forget politics is about numbers and they are only second to the Kikuyu in this criterion.
Mudavadi is more senior than Ruto in age and previous positions in government. He’s already occupied the post Ruto holds.
Partners in crime at the ICC
Ruto has demonstrated he’s an ego that can’t let him deputize anybody. He’s still in post by virtue of security of tenure.
Otherwise, he’s the really opposition leader in the Government he’s deputy president. Raila saw it and by-passed him in the Pentagon.
Uhuru had no choice but accept him, then, being partners in crime at the ICC. What’s my point? Mudavadi shouldn’t accept to play second fiddle to anyone outside OKA.
Confirming the notion of the two horse race
To do so will be succumbing to or confirming the notion of the two-horse race, which is the creation of propaganda wars between Raila and Ruto.
Raila shouldn’t imagine what happened in 2013 in the Mulembe nation will be repeated in his favour.
It can happen again if he reconciles with the former NASA partners. That’s what informed and prompted the MKF luminaries to settle on him.
Former NASA strongholds
That the former NASA strongholds remain intact. There’s nowhere Raila is going without full support of the OKA quartet.
It won’t be surprising for Raila to come third if OKA principals stick together and agree on the flag bearer.
He could even miss out in the run-off. Gideon Moi’s attendance of the ALU convention sent mixed signals in OKA.
Gideon Mois soft spot
Like CSs, Gideon thinks Uhuru is rooting for Raila. The truth is that Gideon’s soft spot for the Enigma stems from his respect for Uhuru, not love for Raila.
Ruto has lost steam and continues making blunders in his weekly visits to the Mountain. The repeated bottom up economic model no longer galvanizes the crowds who come for handouts.
His opposition to BBI is in contrast to Uhuru’s lamentations over the death of the BBI Bill. This alone will deny Ruto the Mountain votes.
There’s no way they can elect a person who’s counter to Uhuru’s legacy, especially he’s known to do the opposite of what he says.
He rides on Jubilee successes and trashes the Big Four Agenda at the same time.
The Mountain voters will want to listen to new candidates and campaign messages during official campaigns. Ruto has nothing new to offer.